Nation-state Bitcoin adoption to drive crypto growth in 2025: Fidelity

Countries are expected to add Bitcoin into national strategic reserves in 2025, kicking off significant growth in the crypto market, Fidelity Digital Assets said in its latest research paper.

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“We anticipate more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in Bitcoin,” said Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Matt Hogan in the firm’s Jan. 7 paper titled “2025 Look Ahead.”

He added that these entities may take notice of the playbook employed by Bhutan and El Salvador “and the substantial returns they have been able to glean from such positions in a relatively short amount of time.”

He said that not making any Bitcoin (BTC) allocation could become more of a risk to nations than making one due to challenges such as debilitating inflation, currency debasement and increasingly crushing fiscal deficits. 

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If the US goes ahead with its Bitcoin strategic reserve plans, “it is likely that nation-states would begin accumulating in secret,” Hogan said. “No nation has an incentive to announce these plans, as doing so could influence more buyers and drive up the price.”

Hogan also predicted that digital asset-structured and managed products would “go mainstream” in 2025, adding it was “difficult to overstate the success” of spot Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds. 

“With the initial success of these products, it would not be unreasonable to expect 2025 to bring about more structured passive and actively managed digital asset products to the world of TradFi.”

Hogan also predicted that tokenization will be the “killer app” of 2025, with onchain value doubling from $14 billion to $30 billion by the end of the year. 

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“Tokenization is often seen as a buzzword in the world of blockchain technology, but its potential in financial services and beyond is only beginning to be realized,” he said. 

The Fidelity researchers said investors should “prepare for acceleration” with “increased adoption, development, interest in, and demand for digital assets.”

They added that “investors are not too late to join the digital asset movement” and believed “we may be entering the dawn of a new era for digital assets, one poised to span multiple years — if not decades.”

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