This is when Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s price will peak

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Bitcoin may repeat its price movement from last year.
Arthur Hayes predicts a new peak is on the horizon.

Bitcoin investors may feel a sense of déjà vu.

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The top crypto-asset has leapt above $100,000 this week, recovering from its festive season slump.

As analysts ponder the next move, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could recycle last year’s performance.

“I would expect a local market top right at the end of the first quarter,” Hayes, who is Chief Investment Officer at investment fund Maelstrom, wrote in his blog on Tuesday.

Hayes cited seasonal trends that could make Bitcoin follow a familiar pattern in its price movement.

According to Hayes, “It will be time to sell in the late stages of the first quarter” and wait until “positive fiat liquidity conditions” return in the third quarter.

A similar pattern occurred last year.

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Bitcoin peaked at $73,000 in March and traded sideways during the summer until the rally resumed in November, culminating in a new all-time high of $108,000 in December.

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Hayes analysed the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and dollar liquidity based on the US Treasury’s debt servicing.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin and crypto prices rally during periods of dollar liquidity increase. He expects such a condition to exist in the year’s opening quarter when the Treasury can borrow funds to fund the government.

But it won’t last long.

Tax Day in the US comes shortly after the first quarter ends. Tax revenue is a major part of the Treasury’s main cash account. By then, Hayes expects a reversal in government finances, which means a decrease in dollar liquidity.

The BitMEX founder isn’t alone in expecting a Bitcoin rally in the year’s first quarter.

Ed Hindi, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Tyr Capital, previously told DL News that the December price slump was only a temporary blip in a larger positive move for Bitcoin.

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Hindi called the late December slump a “short-term correction.”

“It should be quickly reversed in the first quarter of 2025,” Hindi said. “We expect strong support for BTC around $76,000 and are maintaining our $200,000 target for 2025.”