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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin peaked at $106,554, forming a rising wedge pattern.
- Bearish RSI divergence suggests momentum is starting to weaken.
- Key support at $93,756 must hold to sustain the uptrend.
Bitcoin has been on a strong upward trajectory, recently peaking at $106,554 after completing a 5-wave Elliott Wave structure.
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However, a rising wedge pattern has emerged, signaling potential weakness as momentum begins to fade.
With bearish divergence and key resistance level, the price faces a critical decision: sustain the uptrend or enter a corrective phase.
BTC Price Analysis
The BTC/USD daily chart shows a completed 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, peaking at $106,554 on Dec. 16. A rising wedge formation suggests a potential correction as momentum weakens.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bearish divergence, indicating a slowdown in buying strength near current highs.
Fibonacci retracement levels highlight critical support zones, with $93,756 (0.236) as the first key level.
A deeper correction could target $86,129 (0.382 Fib), followed by $79,965 (0.5 Fib) and $73,801 (0.618 Fib). If bearish pressure persists, the $65,025 (0.786 Fib) level becomes a significant downside target.
To maintain the broader bullish trend, Bitcoin must stay above key supports and avoid breaking below the $93,756 zone.
Moving above current highs would signal strength and continuation toward further upside targets, while failure to hold support may accelerate a corrective pullback. The breakout direction from the rising wedge will provide the first indication of the likely outlook.
Key Observations
- BTC peaked at $106,554, completing a 5-wave Elliott Wave structure.
- A rising wedge signals a potential pullback toward lower Fibonacci levels.
- RSI bearish divergence indicates weakening momentum and correction risk.
BTC Price Prediction
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The hourly BTC chart highlights a completed Wave 3 of a higher degree count, peaking at $106,554. A rising wedge pattern has emerged, signaling a potential Wave 4 correction.
Fibonacci retracement levels provide key downside support areas to watch as BTC faces a slowdown after its recent rally.
The first major support lies at the ascending trendline, marking the initial level for a corrective move. Deeper retracement targets include $86,129 (0.382 Fib) and $79,965 (0.5 Fib), aligning with a standard Wave 4 pullback in Elliott Wave Theory.
Maintaining these levels is critical for the continuation of the broader bullish trend.
For BTC to confirm a resumption of Wave 5 toward higher highs, it must hold above the $86,000–$80,000 support zone and reclaim $106,000.
A breakdown below the 0.5 Fib ($79,965) could signal a deeper retracement, challenging the bullish momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate resistance: $106,554 (current high).
- First support: $93,756 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Deeper supports: $86,129 (0.382 Fib) and $79,965 (0.5 Fib).
- Critical support: $73,801 (0.618 Fib retracement).
- Bullish continuation: Hold above $86,000 and reclaim $106,000 for Wave 5 extension.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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